The 2026 tax season is shaping up to be one of the most talked-about filing seasons in decades. Early projections point to record-breaking tax refunds, renewed taxpayer optimism, and heightened demand for proactive tax planning strategies. Former President Donald Trump has publicly attributed these anticipated outcomes to the One Big Beautiful Bill, a sweeping set of tax reforms that continue to influence household finances and small-business tax outcomes heading into 2026.
For CPAs, enrolled agents, and tax professionals, this environment represents both an opportunity and a challenge: clients expect bigger refunds, clearer explanations, and smarter tax strategies than ever before.
Why the 2026 Tax Season Could Deliver Record Refunds
Several converging factors are driving expectations of larger average tax refunds in 2026:
1. Expanded Deductions and Enhanced Credits
Provisions linked to the One Big Beautiful Bill emphasize:
- Expanded standard deductions
- Enhanced family and child-related tax credits
- Favorable treatment for middle-income and small-business taxpayers
These changes directly impact adjusted gross income (AGI) calculations and refundable credit eligibility—key drivers of refund size.
2. Structural Changes That Lower Effective Tax Rates
Lower effective tax rates for wage earners, retirees, and pass-through business owners translate into less tax withheld relative to final liability, often resulting in higher refunds at filing time.
3. Increased IRS Automation and Faster Processing
The IRS continues to modernize refund processing systems, meaning taxpayers may see faster refunds, especially when returns are:
- Electronically filed
- Error-checked
- Strategically optimized
Trump’s Message: Growth, Simplicity, and Bigger Refunds
Trump has consistently framed the One Big Beautiful Bill as a catalyst for:
- Stronger economic growth
- Simplified tax compliance
- Tangible benefits for everyday taxpayers
As the 2026 filing season approaches, this messaging resonates with taxpayers who are increasingly refund-focused and eager to understand why their refunds are larger—and how to keep them that way in future years.
For tax professionals, this means one thing: clients will ask more questions.
What This Means for CPAs and Tax Firms in 2026
The promise of record refunds raises the bar for tax advisors. Clients expect more than data entry—they want:
- Clear explanations of refund drivers
- Proactive tax planning insights
- Scenario modeling for future years
- Confidence and trust in their advisor
This is where technology becomes a competitive differentiator.
Why Hive Tax AI Is the Go-To Platform for the 2026 Tax Season
Hive Tax AI stands out as the most versatile and easy-to-use AI tax platform for CPAs preparing for the 2026 tax season.
Built for Modern Tax Professionals
Hive Tax AI empowers CPAs to:
- Instantly analyze tax returns and identify refund-optimization opportunities
- Explain complex tax law changes (including One Big Beautiful Bill provisions) in plain English
- Deliver data-backed tax planning strategies with authoritative citations
- Build year-round advisory relationships—not just seasonal compliance work
Designed to Build Client Trust and Traction
In a season defined by heightened expectations, Hive Tax AI helps CPAs:
- Provide faster, more accurate answers
- Reduce manual research time
- Deliver consistent, professional insights at scale
Clients don’t just see bigger refunds—they understand them. That understanding builds trust, loyalty, and long-term engagement.
Final Thoughts
The 2026 tax season promises record refunds, heightened client expectations, and renewed focus on tax strategy. While political narratives may dominate the headlines, success for CPAs will come from execution—delivering clarity, confidence, and measurable value to clients.
Hive Tax AI gives tax professionals the tools they need to turn a high-profile tax season into lasting growth, stronger client relationships, and a clear competitive edge.
If 2026 truly is the year of record refunds, make sure your firm is equipped to lead the conversation—not chase it.